However, agriculture here is currently undergoing a profound transformation. Traditional, small grazing herds are increasingly being replaced by large-scale, commercial operations, with dairy production shifting toward indoor systems. At the same time, the eastern parts of this region have served as a stronghold for wolves and lynx throughout the past century. Since the early 2000s, wolf populations in particular have been expanding in both range and number, gradually reclaiming the broader landscape.
Municipalities
Geographical size
Human population
Number of livestock farmers
Livestock farming systems
Large carnivore species
Wolf population
Lynx population
SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT
Podlaskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie are among Poland's least densely populated regions, characterised by a mosaic of farmland, forests, wetlands, and postglacial lakes, making them attractive destinations for tourism and recreation.
Agriculture remains a key sector, with many small and medium-sized family farms dependent on livestock and dairy production. Cattle breeding and dairy farming dominate, while sheep farming plays a smaller role. Podlaskie is highly specialised in intensive dairy production, shaped by fertile valleys and strong livestock traditions. Warmińsko-Mazurskie's agricultural system is more extensive and lower-intensity, reflecting its abundance of lakes and forests, and its lower population density. Farm structures are gradually shifting towards more commercial operations, though many holdings remain small and diversified.
Beyond agriculture, key sectors include tourism, forestry, wood processing, and the agri-food industry, with some urban growth in IT and services.
Both regions are recognised for their high natural value and extensive protected areas. They play an important role in biodiversity conservation and the recovery of large carnivores, such as wolves and lynx. This creates both opportunities and challenges for livestock farming.
Recent geopolitical tensions along Poland’s eastern border, the humanitarian crisis on the Polish–Belarusian border in 2021, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have increased economic uncertainty. This has affected farming costs, trade, and tourism in some areas.
FARMING CONTEXT
Agriculture here is characterised by the above-average importance of animal production, particularly dairy farming and cattle breeding. The landscape forms a mosaic of intensive indoor systems, seasonal grazing, and extensive pasture-based livestock farming, linked to the surrounding natural habitats. This close proximity between livestock and natural areas increases the likelihood of interactions with wildlife, including large carnivores.
Cattle are mainly dairy breeds, such as the Polish Holstein-Friesian, Simmental and local breeds (e.g. Polish Red). Dairy cows are typically kept indoors for most of the year with seasonal grazing. Extensive beef production often involves year-round grazing. Sheep farming is less widespread, with breeds such as Polish Lowland, Świniarka, Wrzosówka, and Kamieniecka, usually managed in extensive or semi-extensive systems.
Main Challenges:
- Increasing droughts and extreme weather events cause crop and forage losses.
- Economic pressure on farms due to rising costs of fuel, fertiliser, feed, machinery, and energy, combined with market price volatility.
- Animal health risks and wildlife-related damage, including African swine fever, avian influenza, and, in some areas, wolf predation.
- Administrative burdens related to EU/CAP subsidies.
- Ageing farmers, limited farm succession, and fragmented farm structures reduce investment capacity and mechanisation.
- Labour shortages and rising labour costs make recruiting seasonal and qualified workers increasingly difficult.
LOCAL CONFLICT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CARNIVORES
Number of attacks:
Between 2022 and 2024, 68 wolf attacks on livestock were recorded across the 13 studied municipalities (including 27 in 2024 alone), resulting in 229 animals being killed. Although cattle outnumber sheep in the region, sheep accounted for most losses, including several mass depredation events of up to 40 animals per attack. Beyond sheep, cattle, goats, and horses, wolves also prey on farmed fallow deer and red deer. Attacks on domestic dogs in house yards are also becoming increasingly common. Most attacks occur during the grazing season, typically on pastures located near villages.
Social conflict:
- Limited support for strict wolf protection: Many rural residents view the current legal status of wolves as inadequate, favouring regulated hunting in specific seasons or areas, although overall attitudes remain neutral to slightly positive.
- Fear of wolves: Despite their long-term coexistence, wolves are generally still perceived as a cause for concern, although reported fear levels remain low.
- Perceived inadequacy of compensation: Compensation schemes are often considered insufficient, as they do not account for future losses or unrealised benefits, particularly in cases involving very young animals.
- Increasing social polarisation: This reflects broader divisions between stakeholder groups with different views on nature, wildlife, and conservation priorities.
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